The First Big Event

The Holidays are just behind us and already we are coming up to the first big economic event of 2014. On Friday the employment report for December will be released. In addition, it is "jobs" week with releases such as Wednesday's ADP payroll report and Thursday's first time claims for unemployment. The stock markets ended the year on a roll and much of this roll was due to economic optimism which arose from strong jobs reports during October and November.

 

This month we not only will be watching the December release, but also potential adjustments to the previous two months' numbers. The unemployment rate fell from just under 8.0% to start 2013 to 7.0% by November. The increased number of jobs created bodes well for overall economic performance and also will help dictate how quickly the Federal Reserve Board will wind down their stimulus programs.

It may well be that market watchers have come to expect stronger jobs reports and any numbers released well short of 200,000 jobs created may cause some consternation in the markets. While stocks may react negatively to a surprise on the downside, this would likely help dampen the rise in long-term interest rates we have been experiencing. In addition, because the jobs report is being released a bit late this month because of the Holidays and the calendar, the February report will come rather quickly.

 

Mike Ervin

Mortgage Banker

NMLS # 252715

C: 650.766.8500

mike@mikeervin.com