It is hard to believe that another year is just about to pass, but the end of
the year holidays are already here. It has been an interesting year. We began
with one of the harshest winters ever to hit the United States and it seems as
if we are ending the year with the same weather pattern, as the "polar vortex"
hit much of the nation in the middle of November. It is interesting that the
cold weather hit the same week that there was an announcement of a climate deal
between the U.S. and China. How can there be global warming when the weather is
so extraordinarily cold? Well, we can't get into the scientific arguments
regarding the debate, but we will note that one of the effects of global warming
is supposed to be more extreme weather, including precipitation. And these
extremes did affect our economy this year.So, we will not be thankful for the colder weather and extreme storms, but we will be thankful that the economy has moved forward in spite of these obstacles. As a matter of fact, the last employment report was the best evidence that we have had that the economy is getting better. Why do we believe that? Well, the numbers were assessed as disappointing. We think that we have come a long way in order for a month in which the unemployment rate went down and we added over 200,000 jobs to be labeled disappointing. Just five years ago the economy was losing 200,000 or more jobs per month and the economy has not averaged 200,000 jobs growth per month since before the recession.
Sure, there are disappointing statistics associated with the report. There is still a low labor force participation rate and stagnant wage growth, which means that many of the jobs being created are lower paying. However, the solution to both of these problems is the creation of more jobs. When there is a shortage of labor, then wages will increase. And if 200,000 jobs added per month is our "low-point" for the next year, there will be plenty of jobs created which will help these numbers. And continued low interest rates and falling oil prices are two additional things to be thankful for with regard to the economy. Yes, things are not perfect, but when you compare where we are today to five years ago, we are in a much better position to move forward with regard to a healthy economy. If it doesn't snow all winter!
Hoping you and your family have a fabulous Thanksgiving.
Mike
