The Fed Transition

The Federal Reserve Board is going through quite a transition. Actually, more than one. The first transition is one of secrecy to transparency. In the past we had to guess at what the Fed was thinking. If they were planning a move, they never wanted to leak the news ahead of time because of what the "anticipation" might do to the markets. Over the past several years, they have transitioned to a more open culture, telegraphing potential moves well ahead of time in order to take that surprise factor out of the equation.

The second transition is removing fiscal stimulus from the equation. The financial crisis and ensuing recession was so strong that the level of fiscal stimulus applied was unprecedented -- from record low interest rates to the purchase of hundreds of billions of dollars of Treasuries and mortgages. The Fed has continued to remove the purchase of Treasuries from the equation and they also face the second decision -- when to raise short-term interest rates. Because of the new era of transparency, Chairwoman Janet Yellen has been talking about dates from the time she assumed the seat.

At first, talk of raising rates caused the markets to react as long-term interest rates rose. But as time went on, this effect has diminished. We are not sure if that is because of economic concerns, world-wide conflicts which have flared up or because the markets just got used to the message. The latest meeting of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee took place last week and the statement released told us that while the Fed thinks conditions are improving, they believe rates should stay as is for a "considerable time." In many ways this statement tells us that there is "more of the same" coming from the Fed, at least for now.

Mike Ervin
Branch Manager/Mortgage Loan Officer
NMLS: 282715
O: 650.735.5261
C: 650.766.8500

Employment Report Analysis

At first blush, it appeared that the jobs report was disappointing. The addition of 142,000 jobs in August was much less than the average of over two hundred thousand for the previous six months. Yet, the day of the report, the stock market reacted positively and interest rates did not fall as expected. What could have caused this "adverse" reaction? To us there are three possibilities. First, the same day as the jobs report, a cease fire was signed in Ukraine. As we have said previously, the world news is over-shadowing our domestic economic news this summer. If the truce holds, this is a positive indicator for the stock market but not necessarily positive for the continuation of lower interest rates.

Secondly, the markets may be betting that the lower number of jobs added might be a one-time occurrence. The jobs numbers are often revised in future months and the markets are not likely to get upset over one report. Now, if we get two or three reports below an average of 150,000 jobs each month, this could be worrisome to the markets. Looking at other indicators such as first time claims for unemployment and the ADP private payroll report, there was no indication that the job creation machine slowed down last month.

Finally, even if the production of jobs does slow down, the markets may not be too upset. Slower job growth might cause the Federal Reserve Board to keep short-term interest rates lower for a longer period of time and nothing would boost the stock market more than the prospect for a continuation of lower rates. This factor would apply if the production of new jobs does not slow any further from here. As we indicated last week, it is a good sign with regard to how far we have come in our recovery for the markets to now consider over 140,000 jobs created in a month a poor performance. Which of these factors is correct? There could be a bit of truth in each theory. You can bet on the fact that the Federal Reserve Board's Federal Open Market Committee will be considering these possibilities as they meet this week.

Mike Ervin
Branch Manager/Mortgage Loan Officer
NMLS: 282715
O: 650.735.5261
C: 650.766.8500

The Best of All Worlds?

The past several years have been anything but ideal with regard to the economy and lifestyle of Americans. We started with a deep recession which included a collapse of home values which were increasing at an unsustainable pace. The way out of the recession was anything but painless. It was slow and tedious at best as the recovery has felt like we were running in slow motion. However, as slow as the recovery has been, it has proceeded over all obstacles and there were plenty of obstacles from natural disasters to political issues and world conflicts. Steadily the recovery plowed ahead.

The two bright spots of the recovery have been stocks and interest rates. We have experienced record low rates for years while the stock market has continued to advance from the depths of the recession. One reason for the success of stocks has been the existence of low rates. For many investors, the returns of leaving money in cash made little sense since there was little or no rate of return with rates so low. Meanwhile, it was assumed that rates, as well as oil prices, would increase as the recovery started "heating up." Thus far, this has not happened. Rates and oil prices have not risen in 2014 even as we have recovered from our latest natural event -- the harsh winter of earlier this year.

As we move into the last phase of 2014, does this mean that we could actually enjoy better times than we thought as the economy moves to the next phase? It may be too much to ask for continued advances in the stock market while still enjoying low rates and stable oil prices -- at the same time that unemployment is dropping towards normal levels. But it is possible as long as the economy does not heat up too fast. The key is economic growth. If the recovery does not roar ahead, but advances at a moderate level for the foreseeable future, perhaps inflation does not become a problem and rates will stay low. So the best of all worlds could be possible and would be a welcome break from the malaise we have experienced for the past several years. Even if only for a short period of time, that would be a nice thought.

Mike Ervin
Branch Manager/Mortgage Loan Officer
NMLS: 282715
O: 650.735.5261
C: 650.766.8500

Oil and Rates

There is an old saying which revolves around the fact that oil and water do not mix. But how about oil and interest rates -- do they mix? The truth is that oil prices and rates have gone lower in tandem this summer. There was a time when the economy could be stopped or started with a change in either energy prices or rates. However, today the effects are not as clear. For example, changes in gas prices don't seem to affect the consumer as much as they did decades ago. There are several reasons for this, but one important factor is the increase in energy efficiencies.

On the other hand, the magnitude of the effect of interest rates does not seem to have lessened, but it is hard to tell with rates remaining so low for the past several years. For example, last year when interest rates started to rise, the real estate market responded by eventually slowing down. Again, the direct effect is not as clear as it always has been. For example, so many in America refinanced at record low rates in the past few years, the rise in rates not only slowed down the pace of refinancing, but also made homeowners more reticent to put their homes on the market. Why leave a home which has such a low mortgage payment? This phenomenon has contributed to a shortage of listings which has in turn contributed to the slowing down of the real estate recovery.

Will the more recent decrease in rates reverse this trend? We really don't think that today's rates are high enough to keep people from selling their house. After all, rates are still close to as low as they have been in our lifetime. What will stimulate real estate is the continued generation of jobs which will increase household growth and a person's confidence to make a move. Job creation may actually cause rates to rise, but as long as the interest rate increases are marginal, they won't keep new households from purchasing their first home or renting a starter home. Meanwhile, lower gas prices and lower rates right now are good news for the economy and should be celebrated while they last.

Mike Ervin
Branch Manager/Mortgage Loan Officer
NMLS: 282715
O: 650.735.5261
C: 650.766.8500

The World is in Focus

There is no doubt that the world has seen more than its share of conflicts this year. We have seen major conflicts in the Ukraine, Iraq, Gaza, Syria, Libya and more. With the amount of turmoil we have seen, the world markets have been pretty solid with our stock market being no exception. By mid-July, the Dow and the S&P were in record territory. In this column we even called it the "Teflon Market" because major news seemed to be shrugged off regularly.

Could this time be different? The Ukrainian crisis has occupied the headlines pretty much all year. Yet, the downing of a civilian airliner has brought the conflict to center stage as many countries, including the U.S., have invoked economic sanctions against Russia because of it's actions in Ukraine. Russia has retaliated with sanctions of their own and now we have an economic cold war in the making. And the markets have reacted negatively to these escalating developments.

Many times analysts have indicated that the stock market is due for a correction as it has been almost three years since the last real correction of at least 10%. Each time we have had a pullback in the past three years the markets have rebounded quickly and this past week we saw at least a moderate rebound. If the Russian crisis escalates, could we be in for a real correction? Only time will tell. However, there is some positive news which has arisen from the stock market's recent international malaise. Long-term rates and oil prices have both headed lower. At a time in which we are receiving positive news with regard to the economic recovery, lower rates and lower oil prices may serve to hasten economic growth. If economic growth accelerates, that is good news for stocks -- but possibly only if rates stay low.

Mike Ervin
Branch Manager/Mortgage Loan Officer
NMLS: 282715
O: 650.735.5261

C: 650.766.8500

Do You Remember Inflation?

 While some may consider this a sarcastic question...we have not had really high inflation in the United States for some time. For example, in the past twenty years the retail inflation rate has averaged approximately 2.25% with an even lower number for the past decade. Two points about this. First, even low inflation rates can cause increases in the cost of living. For example, a 2.25% inflation rate over 20 years will increase the cost of living over 50%. Secondly, though low inflation rates can create issues in the long run, those who are older remember a U.S. inflation rate of near 10% per year from the period of 1973 to 1982. That was real "old fashion" inflation.

So if raging inflation has not been a problem for ten years, why bring it up now? Because the real reason we have had really, really low interest rates for the past ten years is the lack of inflation we have experienced. And if we really want to know when rates are going to go up significantly, we need to watch the data on inflation more closely. The reason rates trend up when we get good economic news is the fact that the markets feel that the Federal Reserve Board will raise short-term rates in response to the threat of inflation.

There are actually two stages here. The Fed has kept short-term rates near zero in response to our deep financial crisis and lackluster recovery. So the first move is to move rates to a low inflation normal. The second move is the one we should worry about in the long-term. That is a move to head off inflationary expectations if the economy heats up. We expect the first move and should worry about the second move. For right now the sale on money to finance cars, houses and investments continues. If we keep creating jobs, we should keep a wary eye on the inflation number because we know the Fed is doing just that when they meet next week.

Mike Ervin
Branch Manager/Mortgage Loan Officer
NMLS: 282715

W.J. Bradley Mortgage Capital, LLC

O: 650.735.5261

C: 650.766.8500

Mid-Year Employment Reading

Mid-Year Employment Reading
We hope that everyone enjoyed the 4th of July Holiday. There were plenty of fireworks during the weekend but the day before the holiday started the government provided their own fireworks with the release of a strong jobs report for the month of June. Most analysts were expecting a decent gain in jobs at just over 200,000 and for the unemployment to remain steady at 6.3%. The numbers were stronger than expected, especially when considering the fact that the previous months of jobs gains were revised upwards.

In June the economy added 288,000 jobs which is robust by anyone's standards. The unemployment rate dipped to 6.1% and the decrease cannot be attributed to people leaving the workforce as the labor participation rate stayed steady. Though these numbers are subject to revision in later months, the fact that ADP released a similar number for private payroll growth the day before just confirmed the fact that the job market is indeed heating up. What does that mean?

This is just what the doctor ordered for the economy. More jobs should translate into higher levels of consumer spending and especially spending on big ticket items such as cars, furniture and houses. A stronger housing market and automobile industry should create more jobs and the virtuous cycle will be created. If job creation continues at this pace, we should expect a pickup in interest rates and the growth in home prices should continue. We know we have said this before -- the combination of low rates and low housing prices will not last forever. While the stock market has been strong, rates have remained low. However, this news might just be the beginning of the end of the nation's sale on money.