A busy week included both an Election Day and a
release on the employment numbers for October, as well as numerous additional
points of data. The employment report was surprising to say the least with the
markets assuming that the government shutdown would have held a lid on hiring
during the month while government workers were furloughed. Not only was the
addition of over 200,000 jobs more than expected last month, but the previous months
data was adjusted higher as well. Economic data measuring activity in the
manufacturing and service sectors also exceeded expectations. This strong data
is important with regard to influencing measures of consumer sentiment which
had turned lower during the month as the shutdown drama unfolded. From here,
stronger consumer sentiment is critical. Why? Because it is shopping season.
November is the start of the Holiday Season and
market analysts will be at the malls more frequently. Perhaps they will be
doing some shopping, but more than likely they will be measuring early data
regarding how busy the shopping season will be. Each year, store traffic
becomes less important because so many are shopping on line. We are approaching
both Black Friday and Cyber Monday in a few weeks. Though the word is that many
stores will be open on Thanksgiving Day and perhaps Black Friday will become
Black Thanksgiving Weekend. Certainly on-line shopping is open on Turkey Day so
why not the stores? Well, those who have to work Thanksgiving Day certainly
will not be thrilled -- unless they don't like turkey and football. Let the games begin!
Mike Ervin
NMLS #
252715
C: 650.766.8500
P: 650.735.5261
mike@mikeervin.com
No comments:
Post a Comment