Looking Back

Next week we will spend some time sharing predictions for 2015. But first we want to take a look back and see what happened in 2014. We started the year with a severe winter and a slowdown within the economic sector. We ended the year on an upswing best exemplified by the recently revised estimate for economic growth in the third quarter. The five percent growth rate was the strongest in over a decade. Though we are not expecting that the number for the last quarter of the year will come in at that level, there is also no evidence of a sharp slowdown in the rate of growth for the last quarter of the year.

Employment growth picked up nicely in 2014. Well over two million jobs were created last year and the unemployment rate dropped almost one percent to below six percent with December's numbers still to be released. Inflation stayed tame this year and wage growth did not pick up significantly -- thus all was not a bed of roses with regard to the employment sector. On the other hand, the low inflation rate enabled mortgage rates to stay low throughout 2014 and oil prices dropped significantly, especially in the second half of the year.

Meanwhile, the growth in the real estate market slowed somewhat in 2014. The pace of real estate sales leveled off and price gains were more moderate that the previous two years. As we have emphasized, the adjustments in the real estate sector are mainly related to the drop in distressed sales, which is actually a sign of normalization. Finally, the stock market was volatile but marched upward for most of the year as the bull market continued. This year's gains of over ten percent for the S&P Index has contributed to a gain of well over seventy percent during the past five years -- completing the stock recovery from the financial crisis lows of March of 2009. To illustrate, the Dow closed at a low of 6,547 in March of 2009 and finished 2014 close to 18,000, which now represents the fourth longest bull market in history while the drop in crude oil and Europe's faltering economy have helped drive down mortgage rates to the lowest levels in 18 months.

Mike Ervin
Branch Manager/Mortgage Banker
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